The race to develop artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities will play a decisive role in the 鈥淣ew Cold War鈥 with China.
America enjoys a multi-year lead in cutting-edge AI technologies. This lead is protected by export controls that prevent China from obtaining America鈥檚 best technology and slow its progress in developing AI with dual-use civilian and military capabilities.
But those controls need updating. AI is developing so quickly that America needs a framework to govern the sale of advanced AI semiconductor chips and model weights, promoting the diffusion of U.S. technology to good actors while denying it to adversaries like China.
The Biden administration attempted to create such a framework but it needed substantial reworking. Last month, the Trump administration rescinded the Biden-era 鈥淎I Diffusion Rule,鈥 arguing that its regulations were too burdensome and that its 鈥渢iered鈥 system would have alienated key U.S. diplomatic partners.
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But it must now act urgently to replace it with a superior framework to protect one of America鈥檚 last remaining technological advantages over China.聽
The stakes couldn鈥檛 be higher. President Trump鈥檚 former Deputy National Security Advisor Matt Pottinger believes that 鈥淎I will likely become the most powerful and strategic technology in history,鈥 and that 鈥渘ations that are first to build powerful AI systems will gain a strategic advantage.鈥 Energy Secretary Chris Wright has aptly likened the AI race to a modern-day Manhattan project.
The administration has already signaled that limiting China鈥檚 access to advanced AI chips is a priority, moving early to further restrict exports of AI-related technologies to Chinese entities. In February remarks to the AI industry, Vice President JD Vance called for a robust strategy to safeguard America鈥檚 technological edge in AI:
"(A)uthoritarian regimes have stolen and used AI to strengthen their military, intelligence, and surveillance capabilities鈥his administration will block such efforts, full stop. We will safeguard American AI and chip technologies from theft and misuse, work with our allies and partners to strengthen and extend these protections, and close pathways to adversaries attaining AI capabilities."
Even staunch advocates of proliferating U.S. AI technology like 鈥淎I Czar鈥 David Sacks acknowledge the U.S. government 鈥渕ust take aggressive steps to prevent advanced semiconductors from being illegally diverted into China.鈥
To date, U.S. export controls have blocked Chinese companies from purchasing the cutting-edge semiconductor chips needed to develop AI models, the tools needed to make those chips, and some of the AI models themselves. These controls have hindered China鈥檚 ability to develop and scale the technologies it needs to expand its own AI ecosystem or offer a comparable non-U.S. alternative to the world.
Due to these controls, China鈥檚 most cutting-edge domestic chips are production-constrained and lower-performing, lagging years behind U.S. competitors.
Export controls are frequently violated and often time-limited. China is working overtime to develop substitutes that will lessen its dependence on the U.S. and render export controls ineffective.
But, If carefully designed and well-enforced, export controls can also be highly effective. They can slow China鈥檚 AI progress for at least a few years, enabling the U.S. to retain an edge during a period of critical AI breakthroughs.
Recently, China has expended significant effort and enormous amounts of capital trying to circumvent these export controls and develop alternatives, underscoring the efficacy of the controls.
Sadly, Western companies have created entire industries devoted to helping Chinese AI firms evade U.S. export controls by selling access to restricted chips through the cloud. Meanwhile, China is using shell companies to set up data centers in countries that can still import advanced U.S. chips.
These threats will grow as U.S. technology proliferates. On a trip to the Gulf in May, Trump announced massive new sales of AI chips 鈥 totaling tens of billions of dollars of value 鈥 to regional partners such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. While a potential boon for U.S. tech firms, the Gulf鈥檚 concerning and increasingly widespread tech ties to China reinforce the need for robust security protocols tied to the sale of advanced chips.
For example, the UAE鈥檚 national technology giant, G42, has deep ties to blacklisted Chinese entities like Huawei and Beijing Genomics Institute (BGI). G42 CEO Peng Xiao has also served as the executive director of a Chinese subsidiary firm fined by the State Department for violating export controls.
Congress is increasingly determined to act. The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party recently introduced the Chip Security Act to 鈥渟top advanced U.S. AI chips from falling into the hands of adversaries like the Chinese Communist Party.鈥 It requires location verification for exporting advanced AI chips and enforces mandatory reporting on potential diversion from chipmakers. The House of Representatives last year passed legislation to extend export controls to cloud services.
The Trump administration must complement these legislative initiatives with executive branch action that effectively addresses U.S. national security concerns while also ensuring the competitiveness of America鈥檚 tech sector and enabling the diffusion of American, rather than Chinese, technology to trusted global partners.
By adopting a superior AI diffusion rule, the Trump administration can produce an all-American AI revolution, one led by American companies using American technology on American soil. That鈥檚 a quintessentially America First policy.